Back around the turn of the century, damn I sound old writing that, before I became a Realtor, I was a project and database manager for an event management company. When I joined my old company there were 21 project managers in the registration department, including myself. The industry became more competitive, margins shrank and we had to do something. I was in the right place at the right time, and I helped refine databases that allowed the company to downsize our registration department down to only 7 employees. As our databases became more efficient, our air department shrank as well. For my efforts working along with the web designers on new interfaces, in 2001 I was the company’s employee of the year.
My point is that developing efficiencies through technology, downsizing and reducing costs is nothing new. All industries have gone through it, and all industries will continue to go through it. Companies are always trying to find ways to deliver the best possible services at the lowest possible costs. If your company doesn’t do more with less, than a competitor will and your market share will shrink. That’s what AI is all about.
CapEx (Capital Expenditure) AI spending and ROI (Return on Investment) are the current issues on Wall Street because the former is enormous and the jury continues to deliberate on the later. The most dominant AI company in the world, NVDA, is now the most valuable company in the world. AI isn’t coming, it’s here and if you are in the workforce and not looking over your shoulder, or reading the writing on the wall, you should be. The job of Realtors, at least for the next few years, appears to be safe.
That being said, the question must be asked, “Am I replaceable?” The answer is simple. Of course! Everyone is replaceable. Everyone has always been replaceable, especially in corporate America.
Picture this: People are already finding the homes they want to see online. Realtors open lockboxes for potential buyers and tour properties with them. Why can’t this be done through Alexa? Alexa can be programmed to tell the potential buyers exactly what the seller wants them to hear. A buyer can contact an owner for access to the property, then an Alexa type device can guide the buyers through every room. When it comes to writing an offer, an AI program can guide buyers through the process. AI already summarizes disclosures for buyers. Skilled negotiators will always be important in the process of buying and selling, but can AI do it better than a human? Not yet, because emotions are so central to the process, but machine learning will get there.
Labor is the greatest cost in most businesses. It’s no secret that the largest expense in a real estate transaction is the agent’s commission. We all need to make a living, but I can see a day when we are obsolete. While the National Association of Realtors is a powerful political force. There’s only so long they can hold off the inevitable.
My plan was originally to work until I hit 67 or 70 years old. There are Realtors who are still practicing in their 80’s. I believe that one day, maybe within the next five years, we will see serious attrition in real estate salespeople numbers as AI replaces us and the industry evolves. So yeah, at this point I am wondering what form real estate salespeople will take in 2031? At the very least, the jobs won’t be what they are today, and there will be less of them.