Before I received my MBA I completed undergraduate degree in political science. With my educational and business backgrounds I’ve got some understanding of what is going on in our economy and the world. Basically, America kicked a hornet’s nest when Trump decided to go to join the war against Iran with Isreal, and now we are all getting stung.
First and foremost, war is a tragedy. The loss of innocent lives is horrifying. For purposes of this discussion, I won’t be getting into the morality of this conflict. Morality is a lost concept on the current administration, but there are things that they are paying attention to:
1) The stock market is in freefall mode. One of the reasons Trump gained the TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) moniker is his sensitivity to the market. He’s watching, and his rich friends are feeling the pain and you can be sure he’s hearing about it behind closed doors.
2) Due to the closing of the Strait of Hormuz gas prices are already up, in America and abroad. Japan is considering tapping into its strategic oil reserves. Australia gas prices are projected to rise .40 cents/liter: roughly $1.50/gallon. Can you imagine that here in the US? Among other countries, you can bet Trump is getting pressure from Japan and Australia to end the war.
3) Trump apparently did not consult with any nations besides Isreal when he decided to attack. NATO would never have signed off on the war. Spain is not letting the US use its military bases abroad. What we are seeing now is that lots of other countries are being sucked into the conflict as Iran responds throughout the region: Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman, Bahrain, Iraq, Jordan, and Azerbaijan have all been attacked as well as Syria and a British base in Cyprus.
4) Inflation is once again set to rise. When gas prices go up, the entire economy feels it. Everything costs more and people have less money to spend. Trump ran on bringing prices down. This war will do the opposite.
5) This war is costing nearly $1 billion/day. While Trump has never been shy about running up debts or deficits, for someone who promised a strong economy this is not helping. Iran is also running a far more cost efficient war, launching attacks with $30,000 drones that the US and Isreal have responded to with $3.7 million Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3) interceptors. Economically, it’s a losing battle.
6) Trump has really run the economy into the ground in only 14 months of being president. The February jobs report shows a loss of 92,000 jobs, when there had been a projection of 55,000 gained. The war is not helping.
7) Mid term election season is already here. In special elections Democrats have been winning across the board. The last thing Trump wants to do is face another impeachment. If the GOP loses the house and the senate, he’s in for it. This war is not popular. Trump can say the economy is great and his tariffs are making America rich as much as he wants, and he will, but Americans know their personal financial situations have eroded. The majority of Americans disapprove of the war. The longer it goes on, the worse the numbers will become and the more it will effect the mid term elections and Trump’s chances of impeachment.
There are lots of reasons the war should end quickly: moral, social, political, and economic. The biggest problem America will face is that we’ve opened a pandora’s box. Iran won’t forget anytime soon. Even though we might want to end the war, Iran is going to seek revenge. It’s not like Isreal is ready to lay down their arms either. Isreal’s government wanted this war. Trump chose to join the fight. Now the entire world is paying the price.